By the end of the XXI century, the super longitution can reach 125-130 years

15 октября, 2021 от hiteck Выкл

The rise in life expectancy is reflected in the economy, health care, the labor market, social and cultural aspects of society. The number of people who have reached the 100th age is growing for several decades, and now it is almost 500 thousand. There are among them and super grand lies — those who live more than 110 years. This trend will increase and by the end of the XXI century some part of people will be able to live up to 120-124 years old, and individual representatives can reach the 130-year-old age.

Scientists from Washington University used statistical modeling to study the limiting values of human life expectancy. Given the modern achievements of medicine, research in the field of gerontology, forecasts and a relatively small number of people who have reached 110 years and more experts wondered what could be the maximum life of a person in 2100,

Based on the international database of long-livers, collected by experts from the Institute of Demographic Research Max Planck, scientists brought the maximum death of residents of 10 European countries, as well as Canada, USA and Japan from 2020 to 2100. By applying a Bayesian approach, one of the tools of modern statistics, they found that the world record in 122 would almost certainly break, and there is a high probability that at least one person will reach the age of 125-132 years.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of the appearance of superdolencers — in the language of statistics, these are «emissions», that is, sharply deviating importance that can overcome the existing records of life expectancy, is and it will grow as the population will increase just long-livers. Against the background of constant growth in the population of the planet, this is quite likely.

At the same time, when a certain age is reached, the mortality rate is equalized. In other words, the chances of living another year in the 110-year and 114-year-old are equal. «It doesn’t matter how old you have, if you have already been survived to 110, then the probability of death becomes the same,» said Adrian Rafteri, a professor of sociology and statistics. — They have already passed through all the dangers of life, for example, illness. This is a very elected group of very persistent people. «

In 2019, Japanese researchers published a study of the composition of immune cells of people who have lived more than 110 years.


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