In 1972, a group of scientists of the Massachusetts Technological Institute studied the risks of the civilization collapse and issued a growth limit report, which predicted that in the middle of the XXI century, rapid economic growth will lead to a collapse of industrial civilization due to reducing resources. And it seems they were right. Senior Director of one of the largest audit companies in the world — KPMG — on the basis of its own analysis of data over the past decades has shown that Western civilization is accurately moving towards a disaster on the schedule predicted almost 50 years ago.
The controversial report caused a lively discussion and criticism of experts. However, received a new unexpected confirmation from Guy Herringtton, senior director and leading analyst KPMG, one of the «big four» consulting firms. She concluded that, while maintaining the current economic trajectory, civilization moves to the final decline in economic growth, which will occur in the next two decades and, in the worst case, will launch a global public collapse in about 2040,
«Given the unpleasant options for the forecast of the collapse of 1972, I was interested to see which of the scenarios most corresponds to empirical data today,» said Herrington. — In the end, the book in which this model of the world was described was a bestseller in the 70s, and now we have several decades of empirical data that will add comparison meaning. But, to my surprise, I could not find recent studies on this topic. Therefore, I decided to make it myself. «
Both of them predict a stop in development for about ten subsequent years — by the 2030th year — and indicate that to continue to do things as we are used to, you can not, the author writes. Even in the case of unprecedented technological development, such a model will inevitably lead to a reduction in industrial capital, the production of agricultural products and living standards in this century.
It does not mean that humanity will cease to exist, but the economic and industrial growth will stop, and then go down to cause damage to the production of food and standards of life … As for the deadlines, in the Bau2 script, the sharp decline comes in about 2040, «said Herrington .
The difference between the CT script is that it does not lead to a collapse of society and the rapid reduction in population. Unfortunately, it is also considered the most optimistic of all the options for the future, since it is based on a combination of technological innovation and large-scale investment in healthcare and education. But if he is still embodied, it will lead to the formation of a new stable and prosperous civilization.
One way or another, according to the forecast, we have only about ten years to try to reduce the likelihood of the Bau2 script to concrete actions.
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